Arming The Libyan Rebels

Arming the Libyan "rebels" may be all very well (in theory) whilst Gaddafi is there to unite them against him. However, if he is removed, they will simply fracture along tribal and religious lines and use the weapons against each other and any Western troops placed on the ground as peacekeepers.

The Coalition of The Unwilling

It would appear that we are now up to our eyes in yet another war in the Middle East, being waged by a coalition of the unwilling, which has no strategic goal nor by defintion means of detrmining when it is over.

Libya - Iraq II?

The enthusiasm for regime change in Libya displayed by the USA, UK and UN may well sound very "noble" when esposed by skilled political oratators.

However, if the UN succeeds in throwing Gaddafi out, who exactly is lined up to replace him and how long will troops be expected to be stationed there whilst "democracy" and a political infrastruture is installed?

Have we learned nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?

A Dictatorship Reborn

Despite deposing and executing Saddam Hussein, on the pretext of "democratising" Iraq, it seems that the US mission to bring "freedom" to the people of Iraq has failed.

The Washington Post reports that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is using special forces to deal with demonstrations in Iraq:

"Witnesses in Baghdad and as far north as Kirkuk described watching last week as security forces in black uniforms, tracksuits and T-shirts roared up in trucks and Humvees, attacked protesters, rounded up others from cafes and homes and hauled them off, blindfolded, to army detention centres."

Out of the ashes of one dictatorship it seems that a new one is emerging.

As I have noted several times before, you cannot impose democracy on a society or country using the barrel of a gun.

The Parade of Horribles

In October 2002, five months before the invasion of Iraq, Donald Rumsfeld emailed President Bush a memo that listed 29 reasons why a military confrontation with Saddam Hussein could go wrong.

Item 17 is Banquo's ghost:

"The US could fail to manage post-Saddam Hussein Iraq successfully, with the result that it could fracture into two or three pieces, to the detriment of the Middle East and the benefit of Iran."

Unrest Continues

Despite being "democratised", Iraq has not escaped the wave of unrest that is sweeping across the Middle East.

Rallies across Iraq, calling for more accountability from elected leaders and better services, have intensified. As such, Baghdad's mayor (Saber al-Issawi) has become the third official to resign this month.

Democracy, when imposed on a country, is not a short term immediate fix for a country's and society's ills. It will take many years to "bed down", and until then the country will be vulnerable to destabilisation by fanatics, bullies and idiots.

Democracy Is Not a Quick Fix Panacea

The people of Iraq are learning that democracy is, in itself, not a quick fix panacea for a nation's ills (especially if there is a culture of corruption and nepotism firmly embedded in that society).

The head of Iraq's parliament has called for new provincial elections within three months, in the wake of anti-government protests across the country. The protests are in response to endemic corruption, a lack of basic services and the unapproachability of the Iraqi government based inside the fortified Green Zone where the US embassy is also based.

Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, undoubtedly fearing that he and his associates might be next in the "Jasmine Revolution" has given his cabinet a period of 100 days to shape up or ship out.

As to whether this is merely window dressing, for the benefit of a media headline, only time will tell.

Criminal Behaviour and Blatant Corruption

The Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction report to Congress has found that corruption and waste has cost the US taxpayer an estimated $12BN wrt reconstruction monies "invested" in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The report found that "criminal behaviour and blatant corruption" were responsible for much of the waste related to the nearly $200BN spent since 2002 on US reconstruction and other projects in the two countries.

Curveball

In a rather late attempt to shut the stable door, former American secretary of state Colin Powell has called on the CIA and Pentagon to explain how he was given unreliable information which proved key to the US case for invading Iraq.

Source The Telegraph.

Regrets

Donald Rumsfeld in his memoir "Known and Unknown", excerpts of which have been leaked, expresses a regret that he he did not leave office at the time of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. However, he also spends much time blaming all and sundry for the Iraq debacle.

One of targets of his ire, John McCain, retorted:

"Thank God he was relieved of his duties and we put the surge in. Otherwise, we would have had a disastrous defeat in Iraq."

Ironically, Rumsfeld is due to receive the "Defender of The Constitution" Award from the right of centre Political Action Conference.

That doubtless will "amuse" those who have been on the receiving end of his authorisation to use torture.